Metals and Steel Industry Trends May 2024

Market Monitor

  • Brazil,
  • Canada,
  • China,
  • France,
  • Germany,
  • Italy,
  • Mexico,
  • Netherlands,
  • Spain,
  • USA,
  • United Kingdom,
  • India,
  • Japan
  • Steel,
  • Metals

2nd May 2024

Metals and steel producers in advanced markets face demand recovery

Global metals and steel performance slows down in 2024

  • We expect global basic metals output to slow down to 2.2% this year, after a 5.7% increase in 2023. Main reason is lower production in China and India.
  • We forecast global metals and steel production to remain subdued in 2025. However, in advanced markets the sector should benefit from a demand recovery.
  • Sustainability-led demand for metals like copper and aluminium should lead to higher sales prices and margins in the long-term

US metals and steel demand rebounds after two years of contraction

  • We expect US basic metals output to increase by 3.2% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, mainly driven by government stimulus like the Inflation Reduction Act.
  • US metals and steel producers have a competitive advantage over their peers in Europe and Japan due to lower energy prices.

Woes in the Chinese steel sector

  • Chinese steel producers are suffer from the ongoing liquidity woes in the property sector and subdued economic growth.
  • Steel supply exceeds demand, putting prices and margins under pressure.

Positive sector outlook in India

  • The country´s rapid economic development, urbanisation, and growing population will sustain metals and steel production in the mid to long term.

European producers face competitive disadvantages

  • The sector has suffered from high interest rates, an industrial recession and weak external demand.
  • We expect Eurozone metals and steel production to rebound by more than 3%.
  • Eurozone metals and steel producers face a permanent competitive disadvantage compared to other countries in terms of energy costs. Investment in cleaner production capacity is another challenge.

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