化工業產業趨勢 – 義大利 2022

市場監測

  • 意大利
  • 化學/制藥

2022年11月24日

比其他產業更能承受市場衝擊

 

義大利化工 - 信用風險評估

經歷2021年的強勁反彈後,2022年上半年的化學品產銷量大幅趨緩。歐洲主要市場(法國、德國)需求下降,作為成長主力的出口也大幅下滑。汽車和紡織品的國內需求保持溫和。建築業的銷量也趨緩,影響油漆和塗料細產業。高通膨壓力影響肥皂和清潔劑的家庭消費額。

由於目前能源和原料價格居高不下,義大利化學品製造廠商面臨海外競爭的壓力,同時主要終端市場的需求也在下滑。此外,義大利化工業所需的主要原料之一「初榨石腦油」也遇到了供應鏈問題。大宗商品和天然氣價格上漲,導致部分化學品製造商停止生產並申請無薪假計畫。政府雖可保障企業免於能源價格高漲的影響,但是補助的範圍和規模仍待審視。

義大利化學品產出

儘管利潤不斷下降,但義大利化學品製造廠商的資本依舊充足,沒有過度依賴外部融資。所以與其他產業相比,更能承受市場衝擊。

由於能源成本高昂,預期未來12個月內付款延遲情況會增加。根據最新的Atradius付款習慣評量表指出,銷售流通天數(DSO)平均超過100天,但企業擔心未來幾個月DSO會惡化。雖然無力償還比例極低,但這段期間內預計會有更多無力償還狀況。如果天然氣長時間內嚴重短缺或天然氣配給不足,無力償還風險將加劇,特別是小型化學品生產商和貿易商更是在劫難逃。

雖然目前面臨重大挑戰,但義大利化工業的財務韌性和違約率不高,所以其信用風險狀況可評為「一般」。基礎和專門細產業持續表現良好,我們認為農用化學品細產業的信用風險較高。這個子產業原料短缺嚴重,過去主要來自烏克蘭和俄羅斯,而且收款時間歷來都很長。

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