Global Economic Outlook - June 2020

經濟研究

  • 阿爾及利亞,
  • 安哥拉,
  • 阿根廷,
  • 澳大利亞,
  • 奧地利,
  • 孟加拉國,
  • 比利時,
  • 巴西,
  • 保加利亞,
  • 加拿大,
  • 智利,
  • 中國,
  • 哥倫比亞,
  • 哥斯达黎加,
  • 克羅地亞,
  • 塞浦路斯,
  • 捷克,
  • 丹麥,
  • 埃及,
  • 愛沙尼亞,
  • 丹麥,
  • 法國,
  • 德國,
  • 希臘,
  • 香港,
  • 匈牙利,
  • 冰島,
  • 印度,
  • 印尼,
  • 伊朗,
  • 愛爾蘭,
  • 意大利,
  • 日本,
  • 約旦,
  • 肯尼亞,
  • 科威特,
  • 拉脫維亞,
  • 立陶宛,
  • 盧森堡,
  • 馬來西亞,
  • 墨西哥,
  • 摩洛哥,
  • 荷蘭,
  • 新西蘭,
  • 挪威,
  • 巴拿馬,
  • 秘魯,
  • 菲律賓,
  • 波蘭,
  • 葡萄牙,
  • 羅馬尼亞,
  • 俄羅斯,
  • 沙特阿拉伯,
  • 新加坡,
  • 斯洛伐克,
  • 斯洛文尼亞,
  • 南非,
  • 韓國,
  • 西班牙,
  • 瑞典,
  • 瑞士,
  • 台灣,
  • 坦桑尼亞,
  • 泰國,
  • 突尼斯,
  • 土耳其,
  • 阿拉伯聯合酋長國,
  • 美國,
  • 英國,
  • 越南
  • 一般經濟

2020年06月25日

The rapid spread of Covid-19 across the globe is taking a heavy economic toll on both advanced and emerging economies. Lockdowns reduce consumption opportunities and create supply-side shocks.

The recession the global economy is facing in 2020, is deeper than what occurred during the 2008/2009 financial crisis. As such, the forecast of a robust V-shaped recovery in 2021 is surrounded by high level of uncertainty.

Key points

  • We forecast a 5.1% contraction in 2020 global, followed by a robust 6.5% recovery in 2021. The recovery depends on the development and administration of a vaccine or, alternatively, a state of the world in which the effect of social distancing on economic activities is largely overcome.
  • Trade growth, already ailing before Covid-19, has nose-dived owing to the supply and demand side pressures created by the virus. In 2020, we expect global trade to shrink by about 15%.
  • All advanced markets are affected to a greater or lesser degree by the Covid-19 pandemic. As a group, advanced economies face a 6.5% GDP contraction in 2020, with a 5.9% recovery anticipated in 2021.
  • In the Eurozone, the worst of the pandemic seems to be over, but the region is still heading for a historic recession in 2020. Sizable fiscal packages have been deployed to soften the blow.
  • In the US, the negative effects of the trade war with China will be compounded by the negative effects the lockdown. The economic decline is having a huge impact on employment, with the unemployment rate shooting up to unprecedented levels.
  • Japan is heading for a strong contraction in 2020, with limited monetary policy space to combat the recession. Tourism revenues have plummeted.
  • The Covid-19 virus is affecting many emerging market economies. All major emerging economies – except for China – will face a recession in 2020. There are large differences between countries in regards to where they are on the infections curve, how effective policy measures are, and to the degree they are affected by lower commodity prices.

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