經濟脫鉤, 亞洲貿易發展受影響

經濟研究

  • 中國,
  • 印度,
  • 印尼,
  • 馬來西亞,
  • 菲律賓,
  • 韓國,
  • 泰國,
  • 越南
  • 一般經濟

2020年12月09日

經濟逐步脫鉤,供應鏈不斷變化和自由貿易舉措,都會對亞洲的外貿發展產生正面和負面的影響。

重點

  • 大多數亞洲國家/地區的經濟已開始復甦,其中越南和中國的基本成長則最為強勁。印度的起步最弱。
  • 泰國、馬來西亞和中國比其他亞洲國家/地區採用更多的財政刺激措施來支持經濟。不過現在中國當局即將收手,避免進一步增加宏觀槓桿。
  • 從中國新的五年計畫來看,中國將比以往更著重於國內消費者導向的成長,而少點心力在出口上。雖然「雙循環」策略有外部支撐,但中國的目標是減少對國外技術的依賴,讓自己更有能力因應外部衝擊,這將會助長國際經濟脫鉤的趨勢。
  • 美國新政府上台,仍然會對中國保持強硬態度,但更容易預測,對抗性也會減弱。拜登政府藉由與歐盟、日本和其他盟友合作,避免延續川普政府的對抗態度,如此會更有可能說服中國在貿易、競爭和其他相關領域上做出改變。
  • 由於中國工資成本上漲和貿易政策一變再變,因此地區供應鏈也是變化不斷。Covid-19 疫情可能會加速此進程,因為事實證明僅依賴一個國家/地區是有問題的。由於相對而言具有吸引力,越南、馬來西亞和新加坡在不同產業中各擅勝場。
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